Only 2.5% of the world’s total water resources constitute fresh and drinkable water sources. The increase in population, changing consumption patterns, and industrial growth have led to a rapid increase in water consumption, causing constraints and water stress in many parts of the world. The issue of water scarcity has led to increased competition among beneficiary countries over international waters, such as shared rivers, impacting relations between cities and villages within a country. Consequently, around 300 agreements have been made between different countries to prevent political-security and socio-economic problems arising from water-related issues.
Turkey is among the countries aiming to reduce disparities between the progress and development of its different cities through large-scale projects. Many of these projects aim to prevent the migration of residents from eastern regions to larger central or western cities by creating sustainable employment in these areas. The Eastern Anatolia Project, centered around the city of Erzurum, initiated by the Turkish government in collaboration with five universities in the Eastern Anatolia region, including Atatürk, Inonu, Firat, Caucasus, and Yuzuncu Yil since 2011, is one of these significant regional development projects. This project is being constructed on the Aras River, located between Iran, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, and based on the experience of the GAP project(Southeastern Anatolia Project), it will have a considerable negative impact on the water basin of the Aras River and the surrounding countries, particularly Iran.
Unlike most development plans with an industrial basis, the DAP project has been designed to develop agriculture and livestock farming in eastern Turkey. Its main objective is determined as mechanized agriculture and livestock farming, considering the employment of the majority of the population in these areas. The project includes 14 major dams and over 90 small dams and various watershed projects, with six major dams in the city of Kars having already become operational.
The political proximity between Turkey and Azerbaijan, the secrecy surrounding dam-related information, the undisclosed completion timelines of the projects, Turkey’s absence from any international water conventions, and the reluctance to enter agreements concerning international waters have added challenges to the water tension issue of the Aras River. This project will have mid-term environmental, economic, and social consequences, as well as long-term political-security implications for countries in the Aras River basin. One of the first negative consequences of this project is the reduction in the inflow volume to the Caspian Sea, leading to a decrease in its depth. Disrupting the ecological balance of the Caspian Sea and increasing the likelihood of a food crisis in fertile northern regions of the country, such as the Moghan Plain, are other major impacts of this massive project. Additionally, it will lead to drought, dust storms, subsequent pollution, and forced migration alongside an increased probability of creating water tensions among various cities in the northern regions.
In this regard, urgent actions by relevant authorities and responsible departments of the country, such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Energy, and the Environmental Protection Organization, should be taken to prevent the development of such projects against both human and national interests. The most crucial actions include:
- Establishing a water alliance with Armenia to collaborate against this project.
- Holding high-level bilateral or multilateral negotiations with Turkey and the concerned countries to determine the rights of each country.
- Scientific examination and collection of appropriate documents, presenting reports on the international level regarding the project’s consequences, and pursuing relevant international authorities to prepare the country for appropriate actions in case peaceful methods fail.
